The newspapers are now filled with the news of the white paper prepared on the economic situation left by the Hasina government. The extent of corruption, looting and money laundering that has taken place in the past 15 and a half years is coming to the fore in detail. Of course, news of ongoing corruption in various sectors, including banks, was sporadically reported in the media before. However, especially after the 2018 elections, the opportunity to control economic crimes, along with political lawlessness, has practically ended. We are heading towards a catastrophe. Finally, the Hasina government fell in an unprecedented mass uprising by the students and the public. Now it is their turn to go for the desired elections after the trial and urgent reforms.
This journey will not be easy if the economic situation is not normal. This includes the question of controlling inflation. It is expected that it is no longer being reduced as desired. Even if it is reduced, there is no benefit. When people go to the market, they can feel how much the prices of goods are increasing. News related to this is not being published less in the media either. There are naturally initiatives to reduce inflation. However, the new governor of Bangladesh Bank believes that this will not yield immediate results. He said that even if appropriate steps are taken, it will take one to one and a half years for inflation to come down. In Sri Lanka, inflation is gradually decreasing and is now negative. Once the country’s terrible inflation, public discontent and the fall of the government were news around the world. There, the rise of new political forces is also seen in the presidential and parliamentary elections. What will happen in politics in Bangladesh in the future is still unclear. However, what is clear is that we are not easily getting rid of the pressure of inflation. In addition, it is also clear that economic growth will decrease. The interim government is reducing the growth estimate for the current fiscal year. Development partners are also saying that it will be at four to five percent. Meanwhile, the government believes that even if inflation can be kept at nine percent by the end of the fiscal year, it will be a success. If growth is low and inflation is almost double that, it cannot be called normal. However, the interim government does not need to hide this situation. They are not going to participate in the elections. They do not need to hold on to power by simply voting to maintain the ‘continuity of development’. However, if they can bring the economy back to normal as much as possible, it will be easier for them to implement the expected reform program. If they can then peacefully transfer power through elections, their role will be memorable.
The private sector plays a major role in our economy. This is where employment is mainly created. Therefore, special emphasis is being given to the normal functioning of the private sector. Agriculture has always been in the private sector. However, since a decade after independence, the role of industry and trade in the economy has been continuously increasing. In this, export-oriented industries are gaining importance again. Private entrepreneurs also play a major role in the service sector. Export of labor is also a big issue. Recently, those residing abroad have increased their remittances through legal channels. Remittances are increasing in much the same way as they increase during Eid-Purban. This is playing a major role in keeping the foreign exchange reserves at a satisfactory level. In the situation of bloody mass uprising, economic activities were naturally disrupted. Exports were also disrupted a lot at that time. Recently, there are reports of these activities being strengthened. It is known that the main export sector, garments, is recovering from its losses. Exports through Chittagong port were also disrupted due to unprecedented floods. At that time, many had to send goods by air at a high cost. There were also reports of cancellation of some purchase orders. Now the purchase orders are increasing again. Since we are heavily dependent on garments for exports, how this sector is doing is a special topic of discussion. Foreign investment here is never encouraging. However, we have always been in a good position in terms of foreign loan assistance. Many promises have been made in this regard during the interim government. However, it is also a matter of seeing whether the money is released as promised. If the revenue collection situation is not good, we will have to rely more on foreign loan assistance. Running the government with money from the country’s banking sector is not a good idea. In many cases, this reduces the flow of credit to the private sector. Recently, the policy of increasing interest rates to reduce the supply of money in the market is being followed. This has reduced the demand for loans in almost all sectors, including industry. Although a number of banks are in a cash crunch, the majority of banks do not have this. In this situation, the government can also borrow from banks to meet its expenses. There is naturally a commitment to transparency in government expenditure. In this situation, it is hoped that if the government manages the private sector, including the garment sector, with discipline and spends with transparency and efficiency, the economy will gradually stabilize.
There is a tendency for worker dissatisfaction to decrease somewhat. This may also be reflected in the news of increased exports. The chief advisor told the business leaders that our labor regulations need to be upgraded to the ILO level. This will likely increase foreign investment and purchase orders. However, it will take time to do all this. At the moment, it is necessary to bring the law and order situation, especially in the industrial areas, under control. Entrepreneurs say that they are no longer having much trouble opening LCs. The dollar market and reserve situation are also better than before. The currency exchange rate is also stable. Seeing all this, entrepreneurs will be reassured. Importers of consumer goods will also be happy. Everyone wants a stable environment in which they can work comfortably. It took a long time to calm the foreign exchange market. It will also take a long time to make the gas-electricity situation bearable. It will also take time to cut the bureaucratic complications that businessmen have to deal with step by step. Businessmen understand this. Their main complaint at the moment is that the expected improvement in law and order has not been achieved even in the three-four months of the new government. There are also allegations that some businessmen are being subjected to additional harassment, such as being implicated in murder cases, due to their closeness to the previous government. The number of those involved in horrific looting and money laundering in various sectors, including banks, is not large. They must be punished according to the severity of the crime. In addition, there is no alternative to keeping business and commerce normal at this time, even if innocent businessmen, even those who were forced to commit some irregularities under the pressure of the situation, are exempted. It is also necessary to remember the situation the government had to face during the 11th, when it took a strict stand against the normal rules of the market. Even if a quick decision could be reached on the roadmap for reforms and elections, it would have had a positive impact on the private sector. If uncertainty continues in politics, it becomes difficult for entrepreneurs to maintain their current activities. However, what we need now is new investment and more employment. If this were ensured, people could have lived with some comfort even in high inflation.
